06 Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Objective: Test 10 critical assumptions via lean experiments to de-risk SkillSwap before MVP build. Total budget: $5K. Timeline: 8 weeks. Go/No-Go based on 70%+ hypothesis validation.
1. Hypothesis Framework
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence (Suburban Homeowners) 🔴 Critical
We believe that suburban homeowners (35-65) will actively seek local skill exchanges if they face home repair, tutoring, or service needs without high costs. We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed users confirm as top-3 pain AND 5%+ landing page signup rate.
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical (core demand fails if wrong)
Current Evidence: Supporting: Nextdoor complaints (1M+ skill posts/year), time banking growth (350+ US banks). Contradicting: None. Gaps: No direct interviews.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey confirmation | <40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | >80% |
| Landing signup | <2% | 2-5% | 5-10% | >10% |
Experiment: Interviews + landing page (Exp #1, #2). Cost: $1K. Next if Validated: Solution tests. If Invalidated: Pivot to urban rentals.
Hypothesis #2: Problem Existence (Retirees Social Need) 🟡 High
We believe that retirees in suburbs will seek platforms to share skills for social connection if they feel isolated post-retirement. We will know this is true when we see 50%+ confirm isolation drives skill-sharing interest.
Risk Level: 🟡 High
Current Evidence: Supporting: AARP reports (40% seniors lonely). Gaps: Segment-specific data.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmation rate | <30% | 30-50% | 50-70% | >70% |
Experiment: Targeted interviews (Exp #1). Next if Validated: Community features. If Invalidated: De-emphasize retirees.
Hypothesis #3: Solution Fit (App Matching) 🔴 Critical
We believe that target users will use AI matching over Facebook/Nextdoor if we provide hyperlocal, time-credit exchanges. We will know this is true when 70%+ rate Wizard of Oz output as useful.
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: TaskRabbit traction but money complaints. Gaps: Manual test needed.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utility rating | <5/10 | 5-7 | 7-9 | >9 |
| Preference vs alt | <50% | 50-70% | >70% | >90% |
Experiment: Wizard of Oz (Exp #3). Cost: $500. Next: MVP roadmap.
Hypothesis #4: Solution Fit (Time Credits) 🟢 Medium
We believe users will prefer time credits over cash if we frame as egalitarian community exchange. Success: 65%+ prefer credits in survey.
Risk Level: 🟢 Medium
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preference rate | <40% | 40-65% | >65% |
Experiment: Survey (Exp #4).
Hypothesis #5: Willingness to Pay (Individual Premium) 🔴 Critical
We believe active users will pay $4.99/mo if unlimited exchanges save time/money. Success: 20%+ pre-signups.
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-signup rate | <5% | 5-20% | >20% |
Experiment: Pre-order page (Exp #6).
Hypothesis #6: Willingness to Pay (HOA Plan) 🟡 High
We believe HOA managers will pay $99/mo if dashboard boosts engagement. Success: 10%+ interest from outreach.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rate | <5% | 5-10% | >10% |
Experiment: HOA cold outreach (Exp #5).
Hypothesis #7: Channel Efficacy (HOA Partnerships) 🟢 Medium
We believe HOA partnerships will drive 100+ users/community if champions promote. Success: CAC <$5/user.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAC | >$20 | $10-20 | <$10 |
Experiment: Pilot outreach (Exp #5).
Hypothesis #8: Viral Growth (Referrals) 🟡 High
We believe users will invite neighbors (k-factor >1.0) if referrals earn starter credits. Success: 25%+ referral rate.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| k-factor | <0.5 | 0.5-1.0 | >1.0 |
Experiment: Simulated referral (Exp #9).
Hypothesis #9: Trust Mechanism 🟢 Medium
We believe vouch system increases exchanges 2x if community-verified. Success: 80%+ trust rating.
Experiment: WoZ trust test (Exp #3).
Hypothesis #10: Monthly Retention 🟡 High
We believe 60%+ return monthly if credit expiration motivates.
Experiment: Follow-up survey (Exp #10).
2. Experiment Catalog
| # | Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Timeline/Cost | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Problem Discovery Interviews | #1, #2 | 20-30 interviews via LinkedIn/Nextdoor/HOAs ($50 incentive) | 2w / $1.5K | ✅ 60%+ problem confirm | ❌ <40% |
| 2 | Landing Page Smoke Test | #1, #3 | Carrd page + FB/Nextdoor ads (variants: "Swap Skills, Save Cash" vs "Neighbor Help Network") | 2w / $1K | ✅ >5% signup | ❌ <2% |
| 3 | Wizard of Oz MVP | #3, #5, #9 | Manual matching via Google Form/email (10-20 swaps simulated w/ AI prompts) | 4w / $500 | ✅ 7+/10 rating, 50% pay | ❌ <6/10 |
| 4 | Pricing Survey (Van Westendorp) | #5, #6 | Survey 100 users on price sensitivity ($0-20/mo) | 1w / $300 | ✅ $4.99 optimal | ❌ <$2 |
| 5 | HOA Outreach Test | #7, #6 | Email/LinkedIn 50 HOAs, pitch pilot | 3w / $200 | ✅ 10% response | ❌ <5% |
| 6 | Pre-Order Test | #5 | Stripe on landing for premium access | 2w / $100 | ✅ 10+ pre-orders | ❌ <5 |
| 7 | Fake Door Feature Test | #3, #9 | Ads for "vouch signup" button on landing | 1w / $500 | ✅ >15% click | ❌ <5% |
| 8 | Channel CAC Test | #7 | $500 ads: FB, Nextdoor, LinkedIn | 2w / $800 | ✅ CAC <$10 | ❌ >$20 |
| 9 | Referral Simulation | #8 | WoZ users get "invite link" for credits | 2w / $0 | ✅ k>1.0 | ❌ <0.5 |
| 10 | Competitor Tear-Down | #3 | Interviews: Why not Nextdoor/TaskRabbit? | 1w / $500 | ✅ Gaps identified |
| 11 | Credit System Sim | #4 | Spreadsheet tracker in WoZ, survey pref | 2w / $0 | ✅ 65%+ prefer |
| 12 | Retention Follow-Up | #10 | Email WoZ users week 2: intent to reuse | 1w / $0 | ✅ 60%+ intent |
3. Experiment Prioritization Matrix
| Experiment | Hyp | Impact | Effort | Risk if Skipped | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interviews | #1,2 | 🔴 Crit | Med | Fail | 1 |
| Landing Page | #1,3 | 🔴 Crit | Low | Fail | 2 |
| WoZ MVP | #3,5 | 🔴 Crit | High | Fail | 3 |
| Pricing Survey | #5,6 | 🟡 High | Low | Subopt | 4 |
| HOA Outreach | #7 | 🟡 High | Med | Scale fail | 5 |
| Pre-Order | #5 | 🟢 Med | Low | No rev valid | 6 |
| Referrals | #8 | 🟢 Med | Low | Growth fail | 7 |
| Channels | #7 | 🟢 Med | Med | Ineff CAC | 8 |
| Others | - | 🟢 Med | Low | Refine | 9-12 |
4. 8-Week Validation Sprint
Week 1-2: Problem Validation
| D1-3 | Launch landing + recruit | Founder | Live page |
| D4-14 | 20 interviews + $500 ads | Community Lead | Transcripts |
Week 3-4: Solution Validation
| D15-21 | Analyze + WoZ setup | Founder | Report |
| D22-28 | Deliver 10 WoZ swaps | Lead | Feedback |
Week 5-6: Pricing/Channels
| D29-35 | Pricing survey + HOA outreach | Founder | 100 responses |
| D36-42 | Pre-orders + channel ads | Lead | CAC data |
Week 7-8: Synthesis
| D43-49 | Compile results | Founder | Summary |
| D50-56 | Go/No-Go + plan | All | Decision doc |
5. Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
| Category | Metric | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | Interview confirm | 60%+ | 80%+ |
| Problem | Landing signup | 5%+ | 10%+ |
| Solution | WoZ rating | 7/10+ | 8.5/10+ |
| Solution | NPS | 30+ | 50+ |
| Pricing | Pay intent | 20%+ | 40%+ |
| Pricing | Pre-orders | 10+ | 25+ |
| Overall | Crit hyps valid | 8/10 | 10/10 |
Go: All musts met. Conditional: 70% + fixes. No-Go: <70%.
6. Pivot Triggers & Contingency Plans
#1: No Problem (<40% confirm)
Pivot: Urban gig workers or senior-only. Action: Re-interview for pains.
#2: Solution Fails (<6/10)
Pivot: Add cash hybrid. Action: Feature teardown.
#3: Low WTP (<10%)
Pivot: Grant-funded non-profit. Action: Enterprise focus.
#4: High CAC (>$20)
Pivot: Partnership-only. Action: Viral loops.
7. Experiment Documentation Template
Total budget: $5K. Owner: Founder/Community Lead. Track in shared Notion/Airtable.