Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that patients with chronic or serious conditions (cancer, rare diseases, autoimmune disorders) will seek a platform to discover, understand, and track clinical trials if they are actively looking for treatment options beyond standard care. We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed patients confirm that finding clinical trials is a top-3 pain point and a 5%+ landing page signup rate.
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical (product fails if wrong)
Current Evidence: Forum discussions, search volume, competitor traction.
Experiment Design: Customer discovery interviews + landing page test.
Success Metrics:
| Metric | Fail | Minimum | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Problem confirmation rate | < 40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | >80% |
| Landing page signup | < 2% | 2-5% | 5-10% | >10% |
Next Steps if Validated: Proceed to solution validation.
Next Steps if Invalidated: Pivot to adjacent problem or exit.
Experiment Catalog
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Metrics | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Interviews | #1 (Problem Existence) | Semi-structured interviews with target users | % confirming problem as top-3 pain, Frequency of problem occurrence |
|
| Landing Page Smoke Test | #1 (Problem Existence) + #2 (Solution Interest) | Landing page with waitlist signup | Signup rate by variant, Time on page, Scroll depth |
|
| Wizard of Oz MVP | #2 (Solution Fit) + #3 (Willingness to Pay) | Manually deliver the service using AI + human judgment | User satisfaction (1-10 rating), % willing to pay after seeing output |
|
Experiment Prioritization Matrix
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Impact | Effort | Risk if Skipped | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Interviews | #1 | 🔴 Critical | Medium | Fail | 1 |
| Landing Page Test | #1, #2 | 🔴 Critical | Low | Fail | 2 |
| Wizard of Oz MVP | #2, #3 | 🔴 Critical | High | Fail | 3 |
| Pricing Survey | #3 | 🟡 High | Low | Suboptimal pricing | 4 |
8-Week Validation Sprint
Week 1-2: Problem Validation
| Day | Activity | Owner | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1-D3 | Launch landing page | Live page + analytics | |
| D1-D7 | Recruit interview participants | 20 scheduled calls | |
| D4-D14 | Conduct interviews | 20 completed, transcribed | |
| D8-D14 | Run landing page ads ($500) | 1,000+ visitors |
Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
| Category | Metric | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | Interview confirmation | 60%+ | 80%+ |
| Problem | Landing page signup | 5%+ | 10%+ |
| Solution | Prototype satisfaction | 7/10+ | 8.5/10+ |
| Pricing | Willingness to pay at $X | 50%+ | 70%+ |
| Overall | Hypotheses validated | 3/5 critical | 5/5 critical |
Pivot Triggers & Contingency Plans
Trigger #1: Problem Doesn't Exist
Signal: < 40% of users confirm problem
Action: Interview users about their actual top problems, identify adjacent pain points
Pivot Options: Different problem in same audience, same problem in different audience
Trigger #2: Solution Doesn't Resonate
Signal: < 50% satisfaction with prototype
Action: Deep-dive on what's missing, what's confusing, what's not valuable
Pivot Options: Simplify scope, change format, add human touch
Trigger #3: Won't Pay Enough
Signal: Acceptable price is <50% of target
Action: Find higher-value use case, different segment, or reduce costs
Pivot Options: Freemium with upsell, enterprise pivot, cost optimization
Trigger #4: Can't Acquire Efficiently
Signal: CAC >3x target in all channel tests
Action: Test organic/viral channels, reconsider pricing model
Pivot Options: Product-led growth, community-first, partnership distribution