Section 06: Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Lean experiments to de-risk core assumptions for Clinical Trial Navigator. Test problem-solution fit, pricing, and channels before building. Total validation budget: $5K-$8K, 8-week timeline.
1. Hypothesis Framework
10 key hypotheses prioritized by risk. Each links to targeted experiments.
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that patients with chronic conditions and caregivers will actively seek easier ways to find clinical trials if they are researching advanced treatment options beyond standard care. We will know this is true when 60%+ of surveyed patients confirm this as a top-3 pain point AND 5%+ landing page signup rate.
Details & Evidence
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: 450K+ trials on ClinicalTrials.gov with poor UX; Reddit/forums show frustration (e.g., r/cancer). Contradicting: None. Gaps: No patient interviews.
Experiment: Interviews + landing page. Cost: $1K, 2 weeks.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Problem confirmation | <40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | >80% |
| Signup rate | <2% | 2-5% | 5-10% | >10% |
Next if Validated: Solution tests. If Invalidated: Pivot to caregiver tools.
Hypothesis #2: Solution Fit 🔴 Critical
We believe that patients seeking trials will use an AI matching tool if we provide plain-language eligibility summaries and match scores in minutes. We will know this is true when 70%+ of prototype users rate output as "useful" or better.
Details & Evidence
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: Antidote Match shows demand; LLM parsing feasible. Gaps: User preference for AI vs manual.
Experiment: Wizard of Oz MVP. Cost: Time only, 4 weeks.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfaction | <6/10 | 6-7 | >7/10 |
Next if Validated: Pricing tests. If Invalidated: Add human review.
Hypothesis #3: Willingness to Pay 🔴 Critical
We believe that chronic patients/caregivers will pay $9.99/mo for premium if we save 10+ hours/month on trial research with notifications. We will know this is true when 20%+ pre-order conversion at $9.99.
Details & Evidence
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: Health apps like MyFitnessPal convert 10-20%. Gaps: Trial-specific pricing data.
Experiment: Pre-order + Van Westendorp survey. Cost: $500, 2 weeks.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-order rate | <5% | 5-10% | >20% |
Next if Validated: B2B outreach. If Invalidated: Freemium pivot.
Hypothesis #4: Channel Acquisition 🟡 High
We believe that patients in online communities will sign up via targeted ads if we use Reddit/Facebook health groups. We will know this is true when CAC <$20 with 5%+ conversion.
Hypothesis #5: Retention Potential 🟡 High
We believe that matched patients will return weekly if notifications for new trials are timely. We will know this is true when 30%+ week 2 retention in beta.
Full set: 3 Problem, 3 Solution, 2 Pricing, 2 Channel. All critical path validated first.
2. Experiment Catalog
12 lean experiments, total cost $5-8K. Prioritize low-effort/high-impact.
| # | Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Cost/Timeline | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patient Discovery Interviews | #1 | 20-30 Zoom calls via Reddit (r/cancer, r/rarediseases), $50 incentives | $1.5K / 2w | ✅ 60%+ top pain; ❌ <40% |
| 2 | Landing Page Smoke Test | #1,4 | Carrd page: "AI Matches You to Clinical Trials"; $1K FB/Reddit ads | $1K / 2w | ✅ >5% signup; ❌ <2% |
| 3 | Wizard of Oz MVP | #2,5 | Manual AI-assisted matching via Google Form; deliver PDF briefs to 20 users | $0 / 4w | ✅ 7+/10 sat, 40% NPS >30 |
| 4 | Van Westendorp Pricing Survey | #3 | Survey 100 patients on price perception post-demo | $300 / 1w | ✅ $9.99 optimal; ❌ <$5 |
| 5 | Pre-Order Test | #3 | Stripe on landing: "Reserve Premium Access $9.99/mo" | $100 / 2w | ✅ 10+ orders; ❌ <3 |
| 6 | Fake Door Feature Test | #2 | Ads for "Logistics Helper"; track clicks to signup | $500 / 1w | ✅ >15% interest |
| 7 | Channel CAC Test | #4 | $1K split: Reddit, FB Groups, Google Health | $1K / 2w | ✅ CAC <$20 |
| 8 | B2B Interest Outreach | #10 | Cold email 50 hospitals/pharma; gauge licensing interest | $0 / 3w | ✅ 20% response rate |
| 9 | Retention Beta | #5 | Email sequence to WoZ users; track opens/returns | $0 / 4w | ✅ 30% w2 retention |
| 10 | Competitor Switch Survey | #2 | Interview Antidote users on gaps | $500 / 2w | ✅ 50% cite UX pains |
| 11 | Trust & Accuracy Feedback | #6 | Post-WoZ survey on AI brief accuracy | $0 / 4w | ✅ 80% trust score |
| 12 | Referral Test | #5 | Ask WoZ users to refer; track viral k-factor | $0 / 4w | ✅ k >0.5 |
3. Experiment Prioritization Matrix & 4. 8-Week Sprint
| Exp | Hyp | Impact | Effort | Risk if Skipped | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | 🔴 Crit | Med | Fail | 1 |
| 2 | #1,4 | 🔴 Crit | Low | Fail | 2 |
| 3 | #2,5 | 🔴 Crit | High | Fail | 3 |
Week 1-2: Problem Validation
Week 3-4: Solution
Week 5-6: Pricing/Channels
Week 7-8: Synthesis
5. Go/No-Go Criteria
| Category | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|
| Problem | 60%+ interviews, 5%+ signup | 80%+, 10%+ |
| Solution | 7/10 sat, NPS 30+ | 8.5/10, 50+ |
| Pricing | 20%+ pre-order $9.99 | 30%+ |
| Overall | 7/10 hyp validated | 10/10 |
Go: All musts met. No-Go: <70%.
6. Pivot Triggers
- #1 Problem Weak: <40% confirm → Pivot to rare diseases only.
- #2 Solution Fail: <50% useful → Add physician validation.
- #3 Low WTP: <$5 optimal → B2B pharma focus.
- #4 High CAC: >$50 → Community partnerships.
7. Documentation Template
Run top 3 experiments first. Owner: Founder + VA. Track in Notion/Airtable.
Ready to Validate? Total Risk Reduction: 80% pre-MVP
Next: Execute Week 1-2. Budget secured?