Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that independent local businesses and their customers will actively seek and use a shared loyalty program if it simplifies earning and redeeming rewards across multiple businesses. We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed businesses and customers confirming the problem and 5%+ of customers signing up for the program within the first month.
Hypothesis #2: Solution Interest 🔴 Critical
We believe that local businesses will participate in the coalition if they can easily enroll and manage their rewards. We will know this is true when we see 20 businesses enrolled within the first 3 months and a satisfaction rating of 8/10 among participants.
Hypothesis #3: Consumer Adoption 🟡 High
We believe that consumers will download and use the app if it offers a seamless experience and valuable rewards. We will know this is true when we see 5,000 downloads within the first 6 months and an average rating of 4.5/5 in the app stores.
Experiment Catalog
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Metrics | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Interviews | #1 | Semi-structured interviews | Problem confirmation rate | 60%+ confirmation |
| Landing Page Test | #1, #2 | Landing page with waitlist signup | Signup rate, time on page | 5%+ signup rate |
| Wizard of Oz MVP | #2, #3 | Manual delivery of rewards | User satisfaction, retention | 8/10 satisfaction, 50% retention |
8-Week Validation Sprint
Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
- Problem confirmation rate: 60%+
- Landing page signup rate: 5%+
- User satisfaction with MVP: 8/10+