Section 06: Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Objective
Define lean experiments to test critical assumptions for MedMinder Pro, validating problem-solution fit, pricing, and channels before building the MVP. Focus on adults 50+ with 3+ medications and caregivers.
1. Hypothesis Framework
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that adults 50+ managing 3+ daily medications
Will actively seek tools addressing root causes of missed doses
If they experience forgetfulness, side effects, or regimen complexity
We will know this is true when 60%+ of surveyed patients confirm as top-3 pain AND 5%+ landing page signup rate
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical (product fails if wrong)
Current Evidence: Supporting: CDC data ($300B non-adherence cost), 80% app abandonment (industry reports). Contradicting: None. Gaps: No patient interviews.
Experiment: Interviews + landing page (Exp #1, #2). Cost: $1K. Duration: 2 weeks.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmation rate | <40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | >80% |
| Signup rate | <2% | 2-5% | 5-10% | >10% |
If Validated: Proceed to solution tests. If Invalidated: Pivot to caregiver-only focus.
Hypothesis #2: Problem Severity (Caregivers) 🔴 Critical
We believe that adult children of aging parents
Will struggle with remote monitoring of adherence
If parents miss doses due to unshared reasons
We will know this is true when 70%+ report high anxiety/spend >5 hrs/week checking
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: AARP surveys on caregiver burden. Gaps: Segment-specific data.
Experiment: Caregiver interviews (Exp #1). Cost: $500. Duration: 1 week.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caregiver confirmation | <50% | 50-70% | 70-85% | >85% |
| Weekly time spent | <3hrs | 3-5hrs | >5hrs | >10hrs |
If Validated: Prioritize caregiver dashboard. If Invalidated: De-emphasize secondary users.
Hypothesis #3: Solution Interest 🔴 Critical
We believe that patients 50+ and caregivers
Will prefer AI root-cause interventions over reminders
If we demo personalized insights in <5 min
We will know this is true when 70%+ rate prototype "useful/very useful"
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Current Evidence: Supporting: Competitor abandonment rates. Gaps: No prototype feedback.
Experiment: Wizard of Oz (Exp #3). Cost: Time only. Duration: 4 weeks.
| Metric | Fail | Min | Success | Home Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utility rating | <50% | 50-70% | 70-85% | >85% |
If Validated: Build MVP core. If Invalidated: Simplify to reminders + lite insights.
Hypothesis #4: Solution Fit (Interventions) 🟡 High
We believe that chronic patients
Will engage with cost/side-effect interventions
If personalized suggestions save $ or time
We will know this is true when 50%+ report intent to act on suggestions
Risk Level: 🟡 High | Experiment: Exp #3 | Success: 50%+ action intent
Hypothesis #5: Pricing Consumer 🟡 High
We believe that patients/caregivers
Will pay $4.99/mo for premium features
If saves 5+ hrs/mo or pharmacy savings
We will know this is true when 20%+ pre-order conversion
Risk Level: 🟡 High | Experiment: Exp #6 | Success: 20%+ pre-orders
Hypothesis #6: Pricing B2B 🔴 Critical
We believe that health plans/care coordinators
Will pay $2-5 PMPM for high-risk members
If demo ROI via PDC improvement
We will know this is true when 3+ LOIs from pilots
Experiment: B2B outreach (Exp #12)
Hypothesis #7: Channel Facebook 🟢 Medium
We believe that seniors/caregivers
Will convert via Facebook ads
If target chronic condition groups
We will know this is true when CAC <$10, 8%+ signup
Hypothesis #8: Channel Caregiver Forums 🟢 Medium
We believe that caregivers on Reddit/AARP
Will sign up organically
If share value-first content
We will know this is true when 10%+ conversion from posts
Hypothesis #9: Retention Potential 🟡 High
We believe that users
Will return weekly for insights
If PDC improves 10%+
We will know this is true when D7 retention >40%
Hypothesis #10: Pharmacy Value 🟢 Medium
We believe that users
Will use refill/price tools
If saves $10+ per fill
We will know this is true when 60%+ click-through
2. Experiment Catalog
| # | Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Timeline/Cost | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patient/Caregiver Interviews Semi-structured calls via Facebook groups, Reddit r/AgingParents, AARP forums. 25 patients + 15 caregivers. $50 incentives. | #1, #2 | 45-min Zoom, script on pains/causes. | 2w / $1.2K | ✅ 60%+ confirm | ❌ <40% |
| 2 | Landing Page Test Carrd page: "AI Coach Fixes Why You Miss Meds". Ads on FB/Google targeting 50+, diabetes/heart groups. | #1, #3 | Waitlist + variants (reminders vs insights). | 2w / $800 | ✅ >5% signup | ❌ <2% |
| 3 | Wizard of Oz MVP Form intake → Manual AI (GPT) analysis + insights → Email report. 15 users. | #3, #4 | NPS survey post-delivery. | 4w / $0 (time) | ✅ 7+/10, 50% pay | ❌ <6/10 |
| 4 | Pricing Survey (Van Westendorp) SurveyMonkey to 100+ via Prolific/Reddit. Test $2.99-$9.99/mo. | #5 | Price sensitivity curves. | 1w / $400 | ✅ Optimal $4-6 | ❌ <$3 |
| 5 | Competitor Tear-Down Interviews: "Why abandoned Medisafe?" 20 users. | #3 | Switch reasons. | 2w / $600 | ✅ 70% cite no root-cause |
| 6 | Pre-Order Test Gumroad: $4.99 pre-pay for report. Drive from LP. | #5 | 10+ orders target. | 3w / $300 ads | ✅ 20% conv | ❌ <5% |
| 7 | Fake Door: Pharmacy Feature LP button "Find Cheaper Refills" → Waitlist. | #10 | Click rate. | 1w / $200 | ✅ >30% click |
| 8 | Channel CAC Test $1K split FB/LinkedIn/Reddit. Track to signup. | #7, #8 | CAC <$15. | 2w / $1K | ✅ FB <$10 CAC |
| 9 | Caregiver Referral Test WoZ users: "Share for free month?" Viral K=1.2 target. | #2 | Share rate. | 2w / $0 | ✅ 20% refer |
| 10 | B2B Outreach Cold email 50 care coordinators/health plans. Demo deck. | #6 | Meeting/LOI rate. | 4w / $200 | ✅ 10% meetings |
| 11 | Retention Email Sequence WoZ follow-up: Weekly check-in simulation. | #9 | D7 open/click. | 4w / $0 | ✅ 40% D7 retention |
| 12 | Photo Verification Interest Survey in interviews: Willingness for photo confirm. | #4 | Usage intent. | 1w / $0 | ✅ 50%+ yes |
3. Experiment Prioritization Matrix
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Impact | Effort | Risk if Skipped | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interviews | #1,2 | 🔴 Critical | Medium | Fail | 1 |
| Landing Page | #1,3 | 🔴 Critical | Low | Fail | 2 |
| WoZ MVP | #3,4 | 🔴 Critical | High | Fail | 3 |
| Pricing Survey | #5 | 🟡 High | Low | Suboptimal $ | 4 |
| Pre-Order | #5 | 🟡 High | Medium | No pay proof | 5 |
| Channel Test | #7,8 | 🟢 Medium | Medium | High CAC | 6 |
| B2B Outreach | #6 | 🔴 Critical | Medium | Miss revenue | 7 |
4. 8-Week Validation Sprint
Week 1-2: Problem Validation
| Day | Activity | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|
| D1-3 | Launch LP + recruit | Live page, 40 schedules |
| D4-14 | Interviews + ads ($800) | 40 transcripts, 1K visits |
Week 3-4: Solution Validation
| D15-18 | Analyze data | Report |
| D15-28 | WoZ for 15 users | Feedback + NPS |
Week 5-6: Pricing/Channels
| D29-35 | Pricing survey + pre-order | 100 responses |
| D29-42 | Channel ads + B2B emails | CAC data |
Week 7-8: Synthesis
| D43-52 | Compile results | Summary report |
| D53-56 | Go/No-Go + plan | Decision doc |
5. Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
| Category | Metric | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | Confirmation | 60%+ | 80%+ |
| Problem | LP Signup | 5%+ | 10%+ |
| Solution | Satisfaction | 7/10+ | 8.5/10+ |
| Solution | NPS | 30+ | 50+ |
| Pricing | WTP Consumer | 20%+ | 40%+ |
| Pricing | B2B Interest | 10% meetings | 3+ LOIs |
| Overall | Hypotheses Validated | 7/10 Critical | 10/10 |
Go: All Must | Conditional: 80% + path | No-Go: <70%
6. Pivot Triggers & Contingency Plans
Trigger #1: No Problem (<40% confirm)
Pivot: Focus caregivers only or simple reminders app.
Trigger #2: Low Solution Fit (<50% useful)
Pivot: Add human coaching hybrid or gamification.
Trigger #3: Low WTP (<$3 optimal)
Pivot: Freemium heavy, B2B-first, or pharma sponsorship.
Trigger #4: High CAC (>$20 all channels)
Pivot: Partnerships with pharmacies/AARP for distribution.
7. Experiment Documentation Template
Total Estimated Cost: $5.5K | Timeline: 8 Weeks | Owner: Founder + VA