Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that adults 50+ managing 3+ daily medications for chronic conditions will actively seek a medication management solution that goes beyond simple reminders to understand why they miss doses and provides personalized interventions to improve adherence, if we provide an AI-powered medication management companion that offers intelligent reminders, root cause analysis, and personalized interventions. We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed individuals confirm this is a significant pain point AND 5%+ landing page signup rate.
Hypothesis #2: Solution Interest 🔴 Critical
We believe that individuals seeking medication management solutions will use an AI-powered companion instead of manual methods or simple reminder apps, if we deliver a comprehensive and actionable platform that integrates with their pharmacy and health systems. We will know this is true when we see 70%+ of prototype users rate the output as "useful" or "very useful" and 50%+ are willing to pay $4.99/month for premium features.
Hypothesis #3: Willingness to Pay 🔴 Critical
We believe that adults 50+ managing chronic conditions will pay $4.99/month for a premium medication management service, if we provide a platform that offers significant value through improved adherence, reduced hospitalizations, and enhanced quality of life. We will know this is true when we see 50%+ of users convert to paid subscriptions after a free trial period.
Experiment Catalog
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Method | Sample Size | Duration | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Interviews | #1 (Problem Existence) | Semi-structured interviews | 20-30 | 2 weeks | $1,000-$1,500 |
| Landing Page Test | #1, #2 (Problem Existence, Solution Interest) | Landing page with waitlist signup | 1,000 | 2 weeks | $500-$1,000 |
| Wizard of Oz MVP | #2, #3 (Solution Interest, Willingness to Pay) | Manual delivery of service | 10-20 | 4 weeks | Time only (10-20 hours) |
8-Week Validation Sprint
Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
| Category | Metric | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | Interview confirmation | 60%+ | 80%+ |
| Problem | Landing page signup | 5%+ | 10%+ |
| Solution | Prototype satisfaction | 7/10+ | 8.5/10+ |
| Solution | NPS | 30+ | 50+ |
| Pricing | Willingness to pay at $4.99 | 50%+ | 70%+ |