Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that AI engineers and prompt engineers
Will actively seek prompt management tools
If we provide a system to organize, version, test, and share prompts efficiently
We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed users confirm this as a top-3 need AND 5%+ landing page signup rate
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical (product fails if wrong)
Current Evidence: Forum discussions, search volume, competitor traction
Gaps: No direct user interviews yet
Experiment Catalog
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Impact | Effort | Risk if Skipped | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Interviews | #1 | 🔴 Critical | Medium | Fail | 1 |
| Landing Page Test | #1, #2 | 🔴 Critical | Low | Fail | 2 |
| Wizard of Oz MVP | #2, #3 | 🔴 Critical | High | Fail | 3 |
| Pricing Survey | #3 | 🟡 High | Low | Suboptimal pricing | 4 |
| Pre-Order Test | #3 | 🟢 Medium | Medium | Lack of validation | 5 |
| Channel Testing | #4 | 🟢 Medium | Medium | Inefficient CAC | 6 |
8-Week Validation Sprint
Week 1-2: Problem Validation
- Day 1-3: Launch landing page
- Day 1-7: Recruit interview participants
- Day 4-14: Conduct interviews
- Day 8-14: Run landing page ads ($500)
Week 3-4: Solution Validation
- Day 15-18: Analyze interview data
- Day 15-21: Build Wizard of Oz process
- Day 19-28: Deliver to 10 users
Week 5-6: Pricing & Willingness to Pay
- Day 29-35: Run pricing survey
- Day 29-35: Collect post-delivery payments
- Day 36-42: Analyze pricing data
Week 7-8: Synthesis & Decision
- Day 43-49: Compile all experiment results
- Day 50-52: Make Go/No-Go decision
- Day 53-56: Plan Phase 2 (if Go)
Minimum Success Criteria (Go/No-Go)
| Category | Metric | Must Achieve | Nice-to-Have |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | Interview confirmation | 60%+ | 80%+ |
| Problem | Landing page signup | 5%+ | 10%+ |
| Solution | Prototype satisfaction | 7/10+ | 8.5/10+ |
| Solution | NPS | 30+ | 50+ |
| Pricing | Willingness to pay at $X | 50%+ | 70%+ |
| Pricing | Pre-orders collected | 10+ | 25+ |
| Overall | Hypotheses validated | 3/5 critical | 5/5 critical |
Pivot Triggers & Contingency Plans
Trigger #1: Problem Doesn't Exist
Signal: <40% of users confirm problem
Action: Interview users about their actual top problems, identify adjacent pain points
Pivot Options: Different problem in same audience, same problem in different audience
Trigger #2: Solution Doesn't Resonate
Signal: <50% satisfaction with prototype
Action: Deep-dive on what's missing, what's confusing, what's not valuable
Pivot Options: Simplify scope, change format, add human touch
Trigger #3: Won't Pay Enough
Signal: Acceptable price is <50% of target
Action: Find higher-value use case, different segment, or reduce costs
Pivot Options: Freemium with upsell, enterprise pivot, cost optimization
Trigger #4: Can't Acquire Efficiently
Signal: CAC >3x target in all channel tests
Action: Test organic/viral channels, reconsider pricing model
Pivot Options: Product-led growth, community-first, partnership distribution