Validation Experiments & Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1: Problem Existence 🔴 Critical
We believe that suburban homeowners in active community associations
Will actively seek a skill exchange platform
If they have untapped skills and need affordable local help
We will know this is true when we see 60%+ of surveyed homeowners confirm this as a top-3 pain point AND 5%+ landing page signup rate
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical (product fails if wrong)
Current Evidence: Time banking movement (350+ banks), Nextdoor complaints about lack of helpful exchanges
Hypothesis #2: Solution Fit 🔴 Critical
We believe that community-oriented homeowners
Will use a time-based credit system over cash payments
If we provide a trusted, hyperlocal platform with community-building features
We will know this is true when we see 70%+ of prototype users rate the platform as "valuable" or "very valuable"
Risk Level: 🔴 Critical
Hypothesis #3: Willingness to Pay 🟡 High
We believe that active community members
Will pay $4.99/month for premium features
If we demonstrate clear value through free exchanges first
We will know this is true when we see 10%+ of free users convert to premium within 3 months
Risk Level: 🟡 High
Experiment Catalog
Experiment #1: Community Discovery Interviews
Hypothesis Tested: #1 (Problem Existence)
Method: Semi-structured interviews with suburban homeowners
Setup: Recruit 20 participants via Nextdoor and community associations
Metrics: Problem confirmation rate, pain point severity
Timeline: 2 weeks
Cost: $1,000 (incentives)
Experiment #2: Landing Page Smoke Test
Hypothesis Tested: #1 + #2
Method: Landing page with waitlist signup
Setup: Drive traffic via Facebook ads targeting suburban homeowners
Metrics: Signup rate, time on page
Timeline: 2 weeks
Cost: $500 (ads)
Experiment #3: Manual Matching Pilot
Hypothesis Tested: #2 (Solution Fit)
Method: Manually match neighbors for skill exchanges
Setup: Recruit 10 pairs in one neighborhood, facilitate exchanges
Metrics: Exchange completion rate, user satisfaction
Timeline: 4 weeks
Cost: Time only
Experiment Prioritization
| Experiment | Hypothesis | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Community Discovery Interviews | #1 | 1 |
| Landing Page Smoke Test | #1 + #2 | 2 |
| Manual Matching Pilot | #2 | 3 |
Go/No-Go Criteria
- ✅ Go: 60%+ problem confirmation, 5%+ signup rate, 70%+ solution satisfaction
- ⚠️ Conditional Go: 40-60% confirmation, 2-5% signup rate
- ❌ No-Go: <40% confirmation, <2% signup rate
Pivot Triggers
- 🚩 Problem Doesn't Exist: <40% confirmation → Identify adjacent needs
- 🚩 Solution Doesn't Resonate: <50% satisfaction → Simplify scope
- 🚩 Won't Pay Enough: <10% conversion → Test enterprise model